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I recently came across a December 1996 San Jose Mercury News article on tech pioneers’ attempts to carry the pre-browser Internet’s bulletin board community...

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  • Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom
    By on June 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently came across a December 1996 San Jose Mercury News article on tech pioneers’ attempts to carry the pre-browser Internet’s bulletin board community vibe over to the new-fangled World Wide Web. In effect, the article is talking about social media a decade before MySpace and Facebook and ...
  • Weekend Reading: Oil Slick
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Beginning in December of last year, following the announcement by OPEC of a cut in oil production, I have discussed the “headwinds” that persist against a sustained rise in oil prices. “The supply/demand dynamics currently suggest that oil prices and energy-related investments could find a lon...
  • Gold Summer Doldrums!
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders.  Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play.  Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year, on waning investment demand...
  • Data Says Fed Is Making A Mistake
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In their policy announcement last week, the members of the FOMC claimed: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.” Economic data has...
  • Automation’s Destruction of Jobs: You Ain’...
    By on June 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Employers have no choice: it’s innovate/automate or die. Automation–networked robotics, software and processes–has already had a major impact on jobs. As this chart from my colleague Gordon T. Long illustrates, the rise of Internet technologies is reflected in the steady, long-term...
  • The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Z.1 Update
    By on June 22, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It’s a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, th...
  • What Is the Market Telling Us?.
    By on June 21, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The entire global economy now depends on this stripped-of-information “market” for its stability. Ho-hum, another day, another record high in the S&P 500 (SPX). What is this market telling us? If you’re long, the market is screaming “you’re a genius!”: But ot...
  • The Illusion Of Declining Debt To Income Ratios
    By on June 21, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In some states, when a couple enters into divorce, the court may award “alimony,” or spousal support, to one of the former spouses for the express purpose of limiting any unfair economic effects by providing a continuing income to the spouse. The purpose is to help that spouse continue the “s...
  • Technically Speaking: The Evaporation Of Risk
    By on June 21, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    On Monday, the markets broke out, again, to all-time highs. This is not surprising and something that I noted over the weekend. To wit:  “Stepping back from the sector-specific action, if you only looked at the S&P 500 to judge what was happening in the markets, you wouldn’t suspect anythin...
  • Is Amazon/Whole Foods This Cycle’s AOL/Time Warner ...
    By on June 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Towards the end of the 1990’s tech stock bubble, “new media” – i.e., the Internet — was ascendant and old media like magazines, newspapers and broadcast TV were yesterday’s news. This was reflected in relative stock valuations, which gave Internet pioneer AOL the ability to buy vene...
  • We Are Getting Very Close To An Inverted Yield Curve ...
    By on June 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too?  Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an inverted yield curve, and it looks like it is about to happen again for the very first time since the...
  • Weekend Reading: Charged With Obstruction
    By on June 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    No! I am not talking about President Trump but rather the crash in both Technology stocks, and Oil prices, which are obstructing the continuation of the “bull market.”  As I discussed this past Tuesday, the mini “flash crash” in Technology certainly woke investors up. “While there is cer...
  • Here Comes Quantitative Tightening
    By on June 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    All of a sudden the Fed got a little tougher. Perhaps the success of the hit movie Wonder Woman has inspired Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen to discard her prior timidity to show us how much monetary muscle she can flex when the time comes for action. Although the Fed’s decision this week to ...
  • 2017 Is Going To Be The Worst Retail Apocalypse In US...
    By on June 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Not even during the worst parts of the last recession did things ever get this bad for the U.S. retail industry.  As you will see in this article, more than 300 retailers have already filed for bankruptcy in 2017, and it is being projected that a staggering 8,640 stores will close in America by th...
  • The Next Financial Crisis Has Already Arrived In Euro...
    By on June 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Did you know that the sixth largest bank in Spain failed in spectacular fashion just a few days ago?  Many are comparing the sudden implosion of Banco Popular to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and EU regulators hastily arranged a sale of the failed bank to Santander in order to avoid a f...
  • Animal Spirits: A Late-Stage Event…
    By on June 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Lately, there has been a lot of chatter about the “Return Of Animal Spirits” as the catalyst to drive markets higher…and higher…and higher. But exactly what does that mean? Animal spirits came from the Latin term “spiritus animalis” which means the breath that awakens the human mind. Its...

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